# The opinion that pisses everyone off

Dec 22, 2025

I got a lot weird hate for saying Tesla is 8 years away from solving self driving. I stand by that statement. I also think Tesla will solve it first. At least FSD is real AI that you can evalulate the honest progress of, unlike remote control cars that break when the power goes out.

I’m not sure this hate is a real opinion, or simply arguments are soldiers political thinking shilling for the stock price. People post screenshots of their 1,000 miles of 100% self driving and for some reason think they know more than me about this. comma.ai owns a HW4 Tesla and many of my friends own Teslas. I’m constantly trying the latest stuff, I got a ride in a Cybertruck from JFK to downtown Manhattan two days ago (one intervention).

It’s 8 years away (this is where I’d take even money, equally likely to be sooner or further) from being finished. And by finished I don’t mean useful, even comma.ai is already useful. I mean finished. That it drives in every scenario on par with a skilled human, recovers from scenarios, and makes less mistakes than skilled, attentive, humans. Long after these cars are frequently on the road with no driver. That you’d repeatedly bet your life on it driving across the country without making a single mistake.

I saw similar stuff about my thoughts on AI coding. AI’s will eventually become better programmers than humans, they just aren’t yet. Sure, if you compare it to noobs they are better, but if you compare a depth 3 minimax search to me at chess the search is also better. I like AI, I want it to be good, it will someday be good, and right now it’s kind of good, but it’s not that good yet.

This seems to just be the type of opinion that pisses everyone off. Like that I think Trump is a OK president, good at some things bad at others. But commenters seem to be dumb politically minded shills who need to sort every comment into with us or against us. I’m against all of you and with the truth.